Chinese space launches hit an all-time high in 2024 but fell far short of the planned number. The country had hoped to host around 100 launches last year but managed only 68. It exceeded the previous domestic launch record of 67 in 2023. But along the way, an exploding Chinese rocket created one of the biggest space debris problems in decades.
The failure to achieve the planned number of launches may embarrass the Chinese Government, which places great importance on matching and overtaking the US’s space capabilities. However, space analysts were unsurprised. Many said the 100 launch target was never possible. They cited issues such as funding shortfalls, a skills shortfall in the Chinese commercial space sector, and current limitations in reusable rocket technology.
For all the noise about China’s space successes, which last year included retrieving soil from the Moon’s far side, there were also failures. These included the August explosion of a Long March 6A rocket that was carrying 18 satellites into orbit. In July, a Space Pioneer fuel booster crashed into a mountainside.
A lean towards big state-owned space enterprises
Observers say the Chinese Government prefers to support state-owned space enterprises over private space enterprises. This is despite, like anywhere else, private enterprises being far more creative, nimble, cost-effective, and willing to take risks.
As a result, for a long time, Chinese state-owned space enterprises focused on producing older hypergolic rockets and small lift rockets, while private enterprises struggled. Meanwhile, SpaceX developed reusable rockets such as Falcon Nine. RocketLab developed the reusable Electron rocket, and Blue Origin recently sent its reusable New Glenn rocket into space for the first time. These developments render much of the expendable rocket range, in China and elsewhere, distinctly last generation.
China’s rocket program continues to evolve. It now focuses on next-generation cryogenic Long March rockets. However, many observers consider these rockets to be subpar to what the private sector in the US is now producing. In China, the private sector, especially the smaller start-ups, struggle to get a foot in the door while the government favours big risk-adverse state-owned enterprises. Observers say this state of play is holding China’s space program back.
China’s outsized space junk role
Meanwhile, the Chinese Government could not prevent widespread coverage of a Long March 6 rocket exploding in August, resulting in over 300 trackable pieces of space debris in low Earth orbit. China isn’t the only country dealing with malfunctioning rockets. Last month, a SpaceX Starship rocket exploded around eight minutes after launch. However, the Chinese rocket left a far greater amount of space junk behind.
According to LeoLabs, China now produces a disproportionately large amount of space debris. The country hosted almost 26% of all space launches worldwide last year, and almost 29% in 2023 – a fairly rapid escalation on previous years. But LeoLabs says China has produced around 60% of all space debris over the past two decades.
Analysts say it is another sign of problems behind the spin about Chinese space launches. Chinese rockets remain inferior to what the US is producing. Additionally, at a time when all eyes are on the impact of space activities on the environment, China is making the biggest mess.
